2010 Senate · AR
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 809 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 55%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 36.95% · Republican 57.90%
R+21.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 55 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 36.945 − 57.903 = -20.958
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-20.958) = 6.958
- Absolute miss = |6.958| = 6.958
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32611, race ID 1509 (538 database).