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2010 Governor · FL

Big Village · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 798 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.72% · Republican 48.87%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.722 − 48.871 = -1.149
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-1.149) = -1.852
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.852| = 1.852

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32613, race ID 1281 (538 database).