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2010 Senate · NC

The Tyson Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 44%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.05% · Republican 54.81%

R+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 44 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.047 − 54.812 = -11.765
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-11.765) = 1.766
  4. Absolute miss = |1.766| = 1.766

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32662, race ID 1532 (538 database).