2010 Senate · PA
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 823 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 49%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.99% · Republican 51.01%
R+2.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 48.992 − 51.008 = -2.016
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (-2.016) = -1.983
- Absolute miss = |-1.983| = 1.983
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32696, race ID 1537 (538 database).