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2010 Senate · CO

Big Village · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 829 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.05% · Republican 46.42%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.050 − 46.422 = 1.628
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (1.628) = -2.628
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.628| = 2.628

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32700, race ID 1511 (538 database).