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2010 Governor · NV

Big Village · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 773 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 58%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.61% · Republican 53.36%

R+11.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 58 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.613 − 53.361 = -11.748
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-11.748) = -12.252
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.252| = 12.252

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32702, race ID 1297 (538 database).