2014 Governor · GA
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 565 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.89% · Republican 52.75%
R+7.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 44.890 − 52.750 = -7.860
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-7.860) = 9.860
- Absolute miss = |9.860| = 9.860
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33793, race ID 1249 (538 database).