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2014 Governor · NH

Big Village · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 645 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.38% · Republican 47.43%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.381 − 47.433 = 4.948
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (4.948) = 1.052
  4. Absolute miss = |1.052| = 1.052

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33817, race ID 1234 (538 database).