2014 Senate · IA
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 647 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 49%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.76% · Republican 52.10%
R+8.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 43.761 − 52.100 = -8.339
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-8.339) = 6.339
- Absolute miss = |6.339| = 6.339
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34447, race ID 26 (538 database).