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2004 Governor · NH

Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication · fieldwork ended 2004-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 617 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.02% · Republican 48.87%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.018 − 48.871 = 2.147
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.147) = -2.147
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.147| = 2.147

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4593, race ID 1371 (538 database).