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2016 President · PA

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 824 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 39%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.47% · Republican 48.18%

R+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 39 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.465 − 48.183 = -0.718
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (-0.718) = 7.718
  4. Absolute miss = |7.718| = 7.718

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47551, race ID 640 (538 database).