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2016 President · FL

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 815 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 46%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.82% · Republican 49.02%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 46 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.823 − 49.022 = -1.199
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-1.199) = -2.801
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.801| = 2.801

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47771, race ID 611 (538 database).