2016 President · KY
Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2016-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 811 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 32% · Republican 56%
R+24.0
The certified result
Democrat 32.68% · Republican 62.52%
R+29.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 32 − 56 = -24.00
- Actual margin = 32.682 − 62.520 = -29.838
- Signed miss = -24.00 − (-29.838) = 5.837
- Absolute miss = |5.837| = 5.837
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47792, race ID 619 (538 database).