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2016 Senate · KY

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2016-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 811 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41.8% · Republican 51.5%

R+9.7

The certified result

Democrat 42.73% · Republican 57.27%

R+14.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.8 − 51.5 = -9.70
  2. Actual margin = 42.725 − 57.273 = -14.548
  3. Signed miss = -9.70 − (-14.548) = 4.849
  4. Absolute miss = |4.849| = 4.849

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47792, race ID 81 (538 database).