2016 Senate · FL
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 773 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 49%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.31% · Republican 51.98%
R+7.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 44.315 − 51.981 = -7.666
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-7.666) = 6.666
- Absolute miss = |6.666| = 6.666
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48088, race ID 93 (538 database).