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2016 Senate · NV

Big Village · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 790 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.10% · Republican 44.67%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.099 − 44.670 = 2.429
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (2.429) = -4.429
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.429| = 4.429

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48089, race ID 63 (538 database).