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2016 President · NV

Big Village · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 790 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 49%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 49 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (2.417) = -8.417
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.417| = 8.417

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48089, race ID 635 (538 database).