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2017 House · SC-5

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2017-06-16 (4 days before the election) · 1,001 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 53%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.94% · Republican 51.04%

R+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 53 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.943 − 51.039 = -3.096
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-3.096) = -5.903
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.903| = 5.903

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50589, race ID 1761 (538 database).