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2010 Governor · NM

GQR · fieldwork ended 2010-10-22 (11 days before the election) · 603 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.55% · Republican 53.28%

R+6.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.550 − 53.285 = -6.735
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-6.735) = 5.736
  4. Absolute miss = |5.736| = 5.736

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53129, race ID 1289 (538 database).