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2012 Governor · WI

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2012-05-29 (7 days before the election) · 935 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 50%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.28% · Republican 53.08%

R+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 50 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.282 − 53.082 = -6.800
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-6.800) = 4.800
  4. Absolute miss = |4.800| = 4.800

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54040, race ID 1269 (538 database).