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2000 Governor · NH

Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 885 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 30%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.76%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 30 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.736 − 43.759 = 4.977
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (4.977) = 16.023
  4. Absolute miss = |16.023| = 16.023

The poll overstated the Democrat by 16.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54501, race ID 1425 (538 database).