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2018 House · KS-3

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 503 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 38.62%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.57% · Republican 43.91%

D+9.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.65 − 38.62 = 9.03
  2. Actual margin = 53.571 − 43.909 = 9.662
  3. Signed miss = 9.03 − (9.662) = -0.633
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.633| = 0.633

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56223, race ID 332 (538 database).