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2018 House · ME-2

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41.17% · Republican 41.06%

D+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 49.38%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.17 − 41.06 = 0.11
  2. Actual margin = 50.624 − 49.376 = 1.248
  3. Signed miss = 0.11 − (1.248) = -1.137
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.137| = 1.137

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56255, race ID 364 (538 database).