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2018 House · WA-3

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 497 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40.62% · Republican 47.58%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.33% · Republican 52.67%

R+5.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.62 − 47.58 = -6.96
  2. Actual margin = 47.329 − 52.671 = -5.342
  3. Signed miss = -6.96 − (-5.342) = -1.618
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.618| = 1.618

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56256, race ID 582 (538 database).