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2018 House · NM-2

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 522 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44.45% · Republican 44.51%

R+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.93% · Republican 49.07%

D+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.45 − 44.51 = -0.06
  2. Actual margin = 50.934 − 49.066 = 1.868
  3. Signed miss = -0.06 − (1.868) = -1.928
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.928| = 1.928

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56337, race ID 432 (538 database).