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2018 House · OH-1

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 492 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40.82% · Republican 49.5%

R+8.7

The certified result

Democrat 46.90% · Republican 51.32%

R+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.82 − 49.5 = -8.68
  2. Actual margin = 46.903 − 51.321 = -4.418
  3. Signed miss = -8.68 − (-4.418) = -4.262
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.262| = 4.262

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56372, race ID 465 (538 database).