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2018 House · IL-6

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 497 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45.61% · Republican 44.4%

D+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 53.58% · Republican 46.42%

D+7.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.61 − 44.4 = 1.21
  2. Actual margin = 53.575 − 46.425 = 7.150
  3. Signed miss = 1.21 − (7.150) = -5.941
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.941| = 5.941

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56393, race ID 308 (538 database).