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2018 House · CA-10

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.28% · Republican 44.92%

D+2.4

The certified result

Democrat 52.25% · Republican 47.75%

D+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.28 − 44.92 = 2.36
  2. Actual margin = 52.251 − 47.749 = 4.502
  3. Signed miss = 2.36 − (4.502) = -2.142
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.142| = 2.142

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56405, race ID 197 (538 database).