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2018 House · FL-15

GQR · fieldwork ended 2018-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 46.98% · Republican 53.02%

R+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.976 − 53.017 = -6.041
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-6.041) = 6.041
  4. Absolute miss = |6.041| = 6.041

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56418, race ID 268 (538 database).