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2018 House · CA-22

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 840 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.28% · Republican 52.72%

R+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.278 − 52.722 = -5.444
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-5.444) = 0.444
  4. Absolute miss = |0.444| = 0.444

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56448, race ID 209 (538 database).