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2018 Governor · FL

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 737 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.63% · Republican 43.25%

D+4.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.63 − 43.25 = 4.38
  2. Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
  3. Signed miss = 4.38 − (-0.395) = 4.775
  4. Absolute miss = |4.775| = 4.775

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56450, race ID 138 (538 database).