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2018 House · NY-23

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 510 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.98% · Republican 47.73%

R+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.982 − 47.726 = -5.744
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-5.744) = 3.744
  4. Absolute miss = |3.744| = 3.744

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56475, race ID 460 (538 database).