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2018 House · IA-3

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43.39% · Republican 41.23%

D+2.2

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 47.14%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.39 − 41.23 = 2.16
  2. Actual margin = 49.304 − 47.140 = 2.164
  3. Signed miss = 2.16 − (2.164) = -0.004
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.004| = 0.004

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56489, race ID 299 (538 database).