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2018 House · NY-27

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39.87% · Republican 44.26%

R+4.4

The certified result

Democrat 44.92% · Republican 40.13%

D+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.87 − 44.26 = -4.39
  2. Actual margin = 44.924 − 40.135 = 4.789
  3. Signed miss = -4.39 − (4.789) = -9.178
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.178| = 9.178

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56491, race ID 464 (538 database).