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2018 House · KS-2

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41.25% · Republican 36.76%

D+4.5

The certified result

Democrat 46.79% · Republican 47.64%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.25 − 36.76 = 4.49
  2. Actual margin = 46.794 − 47.640 = -0.846
  3. Signed miss = 4.49 − (-0.846) = 5.336
  4. Absolute miss = |5.336| = 5.336

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56502, race ID 331 (538 database).