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2018 Governor · NM

GQR · fieldwork ended 2018-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 44%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.20% · Republican 42.80%

D+14.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 44 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.199 − 42.801 = 14.398
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (14.398) = -5.398
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.398| = 5.398

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56503, race ID 153 (538 database).