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2018 House · FL-18

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 475 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 53%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.70% · Republican 54.30%

R+8.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 53 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.699 − 54.301 = -8.602
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-8.602) = -0.398
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.398| = 0.398

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56528, race ID 271 (538 database).