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2018 House · WI-6

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 525 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 50%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.46% · Republican 55.47%

R+11.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 50 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.464 − 55.469 = -11.005
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-11.005) = 9.005
  4. Absolute miss = |9.005| = 9.005

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56533, race ID 595 (538 database).