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2018 House · KS-2

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 902 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 45%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.79% · Republican 47.64%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 45 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.794 − 47.640 = -0.846
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-0.846) = -0.154
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.154| = 0.154

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56534, race ID 331 (538 database).