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2018 House · CA-45

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 499 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.76% · Republican 46.48%

D+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 52.05% · Republican 47.95%

D+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.76 − 46.48 = 1.28
  2. Actual margin = 52.051 − 47.949 = 4.102
  3. Signed miss = 1.28 − (4.102) = -2.822
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.822| = 2.822

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56536, race ID 232 (538 database).