2018 House · OH-7
Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 682 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 49%
R+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.26% · Republican 58.74%
R+17.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 49 = -6.00
- Actual margin = 41.256 − 58.744 = -17.488
- Signed miss = -6.00 − (-17.488) = 11.487
- Absolute miss = |11.487| = 11.487
The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56551, race ID 471 (538 database).