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2018 Senate · MO

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46.4% · Republican 49.4%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.38%

R+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.4 − 49.4 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.569 − 51.383 = -5.814
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-5.814) = 2.814
  4. Absolute miss = |2.814| = 2.814

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56558, race ID 109 (538 database).