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2018 House · NJ-7

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 503 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.39% · Republican 39.49%

D+7.9

The certified result

Democrat 51.74% · Republican 46.72%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.39 − 39.49 = 7.90
  2. Actual margin = 51.739 − 46.720 = 5.019
  3. Signed miss = 7.90 − (5.019) = 2.881
  4. Absolute miss = |2.881| = 2.881

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56578, race ID 425 (538 database).