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2018 Governor · TN

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 497 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36.1% · Republican 58.5%

R+22.4

The certified result

Democrat 38.55% · Republican 59.56%

R+21.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.1 − 58.5 = -22.40
  2. Actual margin = 38.553 − 59.560 = -21.007
  3. Signed miss = -22.40 − (-21.007) = -1.393
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.393| = 1.393

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56604, race ID 162 (538 database).