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2018 Senate · FL

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 495 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50.1% · Republican 48.3%

D+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.1 − 48.3 = 1.80
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = 1.80 − (-0.123) = 1.923
  4. Absolute miss = |1.923| = 1.923

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56610, race ID 100 (538 database).