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2018 Governor · GA

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49.2%

R+2.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.83% · Republican 50.22%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49.2 = -2.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.833 − 50.222 = -1.389
  3. Signed miss = -2.20 − (-1.389) = -0.811
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.811| = 0.811

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56645, race ID 139 (538 database).