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2018 Governor · OH

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 503 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43.2% · Republican 43.4%

R+0.2

The certified result

Democrat 46.68% · Republican 50.39%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.2 − 43.4 = -0.20
  2. Actual margin = 46.683 − 50.387 = -3.704
  3. Signed miss = -0.20 − (-3.704) = 3.504
  4. Absolute miss = |3.504| = 3.504

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56646, race ID 155 (538 database).