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2018 House · TX-32

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 477 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45.82% · Republican 41.8%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.27% · Republican 45.75%

D+6.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.82 − 41.8 = 4.02
  2. Actual margin = 52.270 − 45.752 = 6.518
  3. Signed miss = 4.02 − (6.518) = -2.498
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.498| = 2.498

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56658, race ID 559 (538 database).