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2018 House · WA-8

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 477 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 44.7%

D+2.8

The certified result

Democrat 52.41% · Republican 47.59%

D+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 44.7 = 2.80
  2. Actual margin = 52.415 − 47.585 = 4.830
  3. Signed miss = 2.80 − (4.830) = -2.030
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.030| = 2.030

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56659, race ID 587 (538 database).