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2018 Governor · NH

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 901 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.74% · Republican 52.78%

R+7.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.739 − 52.783 = -7.044
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-7.044) = 6.044
  4. Absolute miss = |6.044| = 6.044

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56691, race ID 152 (538 database).